EV Football – New Review

We are starting a new review today of a service called EV Football.

This comes from the Bookie Insiders tipping team, who regular followers may recognise. We have trialled two of their services – their Football and Golf tips – and both have passed our trials with flying colours. The football service made £2053 profit during our trial and the golf service made 438 points profit, or £4380 profit to £10 per point stakes during our trial. 

So we were pleased to hear they were launching a new service and have been eager to test it out.

Essentially this is a data-driven model based around goal ratings and expected goals (xG), which are used to create a goal supremacy for each match.

Using their own team and league-specific data they then estimate what the odds should be for a game. If the odds represent value on this model then it becomes a bet.

It only started up a few months ago, but the results so far look promising with 30 points profit made to advised prices and 43 points profit made to best closing price.

That has come with a high strike rate of 59% and a return on investment of around 5%.

Bets come from across the European leagues and are all Asian handicap bets. The nice thing about these kind of bets is there is normally very good liquidity with lots of bookie options and exchanges can be used as well.

There is a high volume of bets so that is something to be aware of, although they say “don’t worry about missing bets because over a large dataset/timeframe each members ROI% will be more or less the same. As an example say one member backed all 3000 bets over a 12 month period and another member only backed 1500 bets I would expect the ROI% for both members to be similar enough (barring some crazy variance in the missed bets).”

That makes sense to us and is a point we have made in other settings before.

Anyway, without further ado let’s get cracking with this trial and see how it gets on. We started proofing bets from 30th January so will record results from then and will update things as we go along here.

In the meantime you can check out EV Football for yourself here.




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